An online app developed by a team from Tokyo’s National Cancer Center and the Fujita Health University, in central Japan enables users to calculate their risk of heart attack and stroke based on readings of blood pressure and cholesterol level and other data.
Researchers came up with the method after analyzing the health data of 15,672 individuals tracked over 16 years on average who initially were not diagnosed with heart or circulatory illness. The test subjects were from five prefectures, including Ibaraki, Kochi and far away Okinawa. Of particular interest to the researchers were 192 individuals who later suffered a myocardial infarction and 552 who came down with a cerebral infarction. An analysis of their health data led to a narrowing down of factors to predict the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke.
The reliability of the calculation was verified using the health data of other 11,000 or so individuals.The application works for individuals between the ages of 40 and 69. Subjects are required to input data related to 10 health and lifestyle questions, such as whether blood pressure medicine is being prescribed, whether the individual smokes and if the person has been treated for diabetes. Studying that data leads to a calculation of the probability of having a heart attack or stroke over the next 10 years.
For example, a 54-year-old man who is not being treated for any illness, but who does smoke and whose blood pressure and blood sugar levels are high, has a 12.6-percent probability of having a heart infarction and a 9.7-percent chance of a brain infarction. The app in Japanese can be accessed at http://www.fujita-hu.ac.jp/~deppub/risk.html.
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